Purpose
Early warning tracks signals that conditions are changing before a full response decision is made. It sits between baseline preparedness and emergency response — watching for the shifts that mean a reassessment is needed.
What This Section Holds
- Risk signals and alert records
- Hazard and access‑condition summaries
- Market and supply‑chain stress indicators
- Financial and connectivity disruption notes
- Reassessment trigger points
- Confidence and source notes
Key Concepts & Definitions
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Risk Signal | Indicator of a potential change in hazard intensity, exposure, or vulnerability. |
| Reassessment Trigger | Pre‑defined rule that flags a need to revisit baseline assumptions. |
| Alert Level | Graded severity (Info, Watch, Warning, Emergency) based on signal confidence. |
Process Flow
- Signal Ingestion – Automated feeds from weather services, market data, and incident reports.
- Normalization & Scoring – Convert raw feeds into CDI‑compatible risk scores.
- Threshold Evaluation – Compare scores against trigger thresholds.
- Alert Generation – Create alerts and update the Early‑Warning dashboard.
- Stakeholder Notification – Notify municipal partners via email/WhatsApp when a trigger fires.
Evidence & Data Sources
- Meteorological APIs (SMHI, OpenWeather)
- Market price feeds (Eurostat, local commodity exchanges)
- Infrastructure status feeds (traffic, power grid APIs)
- Community reports (social media monitoring, local NGOs)
Decision Brief Template
Signal Summary – Rising river levels (Risk Score: 0.78) crossing Reassessment Trigger.
Implication – Potential flood impact on transport corridors; baseline accessibility assumptions may no longer hold.
Recommendation – Initiate rapid feasibility check in Emergency Response phase.
Governance & Review
- Owner: Municipal Early‑Warning Office
- Update Frequency: Real‑time ingestion; daily review of alerts.
- Audit Trail: All signal ingest events logged with timestamps and source IDs.
- Link to Humanitarian Assistance – Early‑Warning alerts feed the Emergency Response engine to adjust feasibility constraints.
WordPress Subpages
| Page | Slug | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Risk Signals | /early-warning/risk-signals/ |
Structured signals that may change feasibility assumptions |
| Reassessment Triggers | /early-warning/reassessment‑triggers/ |
Rules for when a context needs a full reassessment |